Two things might happen if the Franco- America’s kinetic buildup of forces in the region goes unchecked and unprotested,.
This might lead to the U.S. and France de facto owning the war against the so called ”non-state armed groups” in the Lake Chad region. An upsurge of violence or a new imaginery enemy would lead to deeper engagement in the region with little political blow-back.
As it stands there is virtually no political and military resistance from ECOWAS the African Union, which gives the impression that Africans are incapable or not interested in dealing with the ”CRISIS”, hence serving as a template to justify U.S military involvement in the region.
It is strange the sudden surge in diplomtic and military interest in West Africa. The fact that this is being kept under the lid should be troubling for Nigeria. When the news of four U.S Rangers killed by ISIS surfaced, Americans were stunned, they demanded to know what U.S forces were doing in Niger. Most Americans cant find Niger on a Map if their lives depended on it.
MILITARY ADVISERS the Pentagon said.
Since when did Niger become an ISIS enclav? How on earth is it possible for ISIS to gain a foothold in Niger Republic? How on earth is it possible for ISIS fighters to ambush U.S troops in Niger for hours, a country bristling with fighter jets, drones and 4,000 French troops. The details are of course murky and for good reasons.
Now, in the midst of these confusing, abnormal (North Africans competing with each other to join ECOWAS) turn of events with details lacking in hard facts and evidence, one thing stands clear, the Nigerian military, particularly the army and Airforce have since 2016 degraded and roll backed back Boko Haram and reclaimed previously lost territories and the world doesnt even know about it.
The Buhari administraions reformation of the military, with emphasis on training, mobility (using small special forces units) and firepower have increased the tactical performance of the Nigerian army and Air Force. Also in recent years the Nigerian military has built up one of the largest number of highly trained Special Forces units in Africa.
These units have been supported with the most technologically advanced ISR and Intelligence gathering platforms, augmented by armed attack drones and tactical reconnaissance drones. Also the use of volunteer militias backed by Mobile Policemen (MOPOL) some degree of airpower to stabilize the newly reclaimed areas when conventional forces depart have enable Nigerian army units to concentrate on offensive operations thus eliminating the ability of Boko Haram to stage spectacular comebacks like they once did and prevented state actors like France and Cameroon to continue their clandestine arming and financing of Boko Haram via staged kidnappings and the accompanying millions in ransom payment.
All this was achieved by the Nigerian military in just three years without the support of the United States and France. Yet the Western Media narrative still paints Boko Haram as an undefeated foe growing more powerful by the day and West Africa in crises, unable to contain the menace of Boko Haram. CBS goes a step further by claiming Boko Haram has morphed into a regional threat, holding Chad Cameroon, Niger and Nigeria hostage and the militaries of these countries incapable of defeating Boko Haram.
The Nigerian media, which should be the ones countering these hyperbolic narrative by Western media and giving a different account on developments is incospiciously absent.
With no countering narrative, this justifies the U.S and France in their continuous investments in non-kinetic buildup of forces , under the guise of helping to establish and expand regional states’ information operations capabilities particularly in electronic warfare, psychological operations’
The U.S has taken it a step further with a ridiculous claims of Boko Haram recruiting via propaganda, therefore the urgent need to investment in targeted information dissemination via and targeted information dissemination via “Radio-In-A-Box” and other mediums. Does anyone even know what it means? I know of no one who has ever listened to Radio Boko Haram.
This should have Nigeria particularly worried because this new radio frequency facility (or whatever it means) is to be hosted by the USAF in Ghana, a country far from the epicenter of the Boko Haram insurgency and in no way involved in the campaign against them.
We’ve seen this played out before in the Middle East. What will follow next will be the need for the U.S. to provide training and funding for comprehensive reformations of local intelligence services to create lacking signals intelligence, human intelligence, and intelligence analysis capabilities.
In laymans terms; Another REAPER DRONE BASE.
All this for Boko Haram.
There is a precedent, we’ve seen this done in Syria. The U.S government once appropriated $500 million to train 50 (FIFTY) ”MODERATE TERRORISTS” to help them in their fight against Bashur Assad, a gross Human Right Violator. You cannot make this up.
This does not include hundreds of tanks and amoured vehicles delibrately relased to ISIS and other terrorist groups in Syria via Iraq, in a false flag operations that saw Iraqi troops abandon American M1 Abram Tanks, humvees, lots of motars and anti-tank missiles to a numerically inferior advacing ISIS fighters.
Thier focusing on non kinetic and seeming harmless infrastructure and diplomatic flattery of ECOWAS is designed to foster nonchalance and complacency from states of the region, to the strategic advantage of the insurgents. This is Libya at play here.
We have to realize that the speed of Nigeria’s military gains against Boko Haram have been unexpected. Even to Nigerians. Even the media is not buying the narrative that Chadian and Cameroonian forces are the force behind Boko Harams misfortune.
Russia and China have played a more critical role in helping Nigeria to gradually rebuild its military. The Powers that be did not envisage Nigeria secretive purchases of attack drones and helicopter gunships, and more ISR platforms. Its taken them by surprise and Nigeria’s fortune seriously rolls back the nefarious agenda by the powers that be.
The army’s capture of the Sambisa forest and subsequent decimation of top Boko Haram commanders by the Nigerian Air Force sent shivers in the French and American intelligence communities. Its astonishing Nigeria’s victory is hardly heralded in the media. They are sticking to their ”Nigeria is not capable narrative”.
Notice the U.S and France started ramping up the construction of more drone bases when the Nigerian army announced it had taken Sambisa. As more and more misfortune befall Boko Haram the United States and France are increasing their diplomatic maneuvering and military footprint in Nigeria’s backyard and sphere of influence.
Its time for Nigeria to face reality no matter how bitter a pill it might be. No nation can truly develop without peace. There will never be peace in Nigeria until our backyard is sanitized. The success and prosperity of Nigeria, Africa’s demographic and economic powerhouse, Africa’s energy superpower whose soft power and cultural influence is growing at breakneck speed is not in the best interest of the powers that be.
Nigeria’s military rejuvenation will not be tolerated. There is an agenda to cripple Nigeria’s ability to defend itself, by stretching the Nigerian military so thin with never-ending out of the blue drama and internal strife, thereby rending the Nigerian army useless. A useless Nigerian army will ensure a de facto reduction of pressure on the Boko Haram insurgents, which gives room for the insurgents and their external allies to exploit the resultant power vacuum.
There is an powerful and smart enemy. This enemy is banking on the fact that Nigerians will see the root of their strife as homegrown. This enemy so wants to disguises itself behind the tangible ethnic and religious problems we share so that we will forget its often the one thats influencing some of the most difficult circumstances in our nation.
They’ve been sititing back studying out tendencies and our patterns, watching and taking advantage of whatever weaknesses and trying to figure out what is the best way to throw this nation off course. Not only have they been studying Nigeria, theyve been studying Nigeria’s traditional allies in the region, trying to look into its history.
Trying to figure out Nigeria’s history and their history and the best way to make explosions of anger and prejudice happen in the ECOWAS family.We can see this playing out right in front of our very eyes. This is no conspiracy theory in any capacity. Nigeria has been a tough nut to crack but they keep trying. Nigeria has been able to go the way of Libya. This is not luck, they keep trying.