The French and Americans, backed by their despotic allies are preparing for some conflict of some sorts, and i can categorically tell you its not a Boko Haram.
Recent deployment of tactical groups in the West Africa in the form of military bases and strategic alliances and their potential expansion into divisions, indicates that they are preparing to start some kind of war of some sort in the region.
Now, there are only three countries in the region (Chad, Cameroon and Nigeria) that have a relatively capable military in the region, and with the first two countries aforementioned locked in a strategic military alliance with the Franco Americans, its easy to see where Nigeria stands.
We all know ISIS is finished in Syria. The recent announcement of ISIS fighters streaming into Nigeria is a bad signal, one indicating a plot to pull off a false flag operation to use as a pretext.mThe position of Great Britain in all of this is not known. Neither does it look like the Nigerian government is aware and monitoring these developments. The statement of the French Foreign Minister saying the build up of forces in the region is aimed to ensure military preparedness and collective defense, deter an aggressor, and prevent a WAR….
Who or what is this aggressor ?
Its all quiet on the Nigerian front. I do not wish to sound melodramatic or alarmist, but i do wish to impress upon you all that Nigeria is at a defining moment in its history. For 15 consecutive years all efforts to bring this 800 pound gorrila (Nigeria) to the ground has failed, much to the frustration of the powers that be. Even the CIA whose prediction have historically been accurate have been left frustrated by Nigeria’s refusal to cooperate and disintegrate.
Whether or not the decision to spend billions of dollars building military facilities and forging alliances in one of the poorest and least developed region of Africa is nothing short of a benign gesture by France and the United States to show goodwill, it is prudent for Nigeria to start taking visible steps to indicate the nation is well aware of these developments. So far not enough has been done.
Nigeria’s recent military deployment of two tactical amphibious brigades and Navy gunboats to the Lake Chad area, though a welcome gesture, have little military significance. Without appropriate air power and the visible mobilization of forces en mass, Nigeria’s deterrence posture will not be enough to dissuade potential aggression.
Nigerian forces face major gaps in their deterrence posture in West Africa especially on the northern and eastern flank, where Cameroon, Chad, France and the United States have amassed considerable military assets in recent years. I’m not even gonna talk about the Sahel alliance.
Nigeria’s ability to move forces is essential to deterrence and collective defense … Nigeria also need to ensure that roads and bridges are strong enough to take our largest vehicles, and that rail networks are equipped for the rapid deployment of tanks and heavy equipment.
Until recently, the Nigerian military was focused on, first peacekeeping, and of recent preparations for fighting insurgencies rather than “peer” or “near-peer” state actors. Despite the loss of Bakassi and recent multiple unauthorized incursions on Nigerian territory by Chadian and Cameroonian forces aimed at embarrassing the Nigerian government.
Nigeria’s political leadership continue to bask in the deluded fantasy that foreign boots will never set foot on Nigerian soil by virtue of her size and diplomatic goodwill, forgetting all too often that Nigeria is sandwiched by resource starved autocratic regimes who have historically been hostile. The nearest English speaking democracy is Ghana, hundreds of miles away.
The French inspired successful destruction of Libya, successful intervention in Mali, creation of the G5 Sahel Military Alliance comprising Burkina Faso, Mali, Mauritania, Niger and Chad and the aggressive buildup of forces in Nigeria’s backyard in the context of increased military modernization of her despotic protege’s, have brought the threat of state to state armed conflict by proxy right on the door step of the 800 pound gorilla out Nigeria.
Francophone states might not be economically prosperous democracies, but they do have the by far the most capable armies. Anglophone states not allied to France are weak in this regard. No individual Anglophone country have an armed forces worth mentioning, and Nigeria, the only English speaking country that has the military muscle to go toe to toe is sufficiently not prepared.
Nigerians, basking in its past glory in Liberia and S-Leone like to quantify the armies of neighboring states as relatively not on par with Nigeria, or at best ”near peer” in terms of capabilities, but the harsh reality is that it is the Nigerian military that is ”near peer” to their Francophone counterparts. There are many more MILAN II anti-tank missiles and SA-7 Grail surface to air missiles in heir inventory than there are Nigerian tanks and fighter jets…
And yes they are better funded. Nigeria’s economic advantage is undercut by virtue of having two of the richest and most powerful countries in the Western world allied to Nigeria’s traditional geo-political enemies.
Between 2012 and 2014 alone the US allotted $288 million in the Trans-Sahara Counterterrorism Partnership (TSCTP) funding to help armed forces of Chad, Mali, Mauritania, and Niger. US special operations forces provide regular training to Niger’s army and has spent millions of dollars on planes, trucks and “other gear” to the African nation, and these are this is just the tip of iceberg given the Pentagon’s significant military presence on the continent.
Between 2014 and 2015 numerous security locations have been built in Burkina Faso, Cameroon, the Central African Republic, Chad, Djibouti, Ethiopia, Gabon, Kenya, Mali, Niger, Senegal, the Seychelles, Somalia, South Sudan, and Uganda.
In 2018 Forward Operating Locations (FOL) have been built in Niger and Mali. By the end of this year the Americans completed a new listening post in Anglophone Ghana. The US also have access to locations in Algeria, Botswana, Namibia, São Tomé and Príncipe, Sierra Leone, Tunisia, Zambia and other countries.
As we can see, the Pentagon has maintained covert control over “about every country” in West and Central Africa.
The US receives 16% of its total oil imports from Africa, with the share of West African oil (Nigeria) equaling the share of Saudi Arabia. There is no doubt that West Africa will play an increasing role in global energy markets, providing 25% of North American oil imports in 2015. No rocket science how valuable West Africa has become in terms of resources.
Nigeria has the worlds 9th largest proven oil reserve, at a staggering 40 billion barrels of proven oil reserve. Of what good is amassing such wealth and building infrastructure if you have no way of defending it? Lets not forget that the hydrocarbon-rich Gulf of Guinea is the main location of oil reserves in SSA, thus bearing tremendous prospects.
So we see West African oil remains strategically important for the United States, especially since it provides an alternative to Persian Gulf oil. As a result the Pentagon’s focus since 2002, let alone Libya which was invaded by NATO in 2011. So it is hardly a coincidence the sudden MAD RUSH for the West African EQUITY MARKET. Everybody wants a piece of the pie.
Not an ECOWAS member country? Now is the time to join. France has a large share, the United States is basically competing with France in this regard. Morocco just joined the fray, Tunisia wants a piece of the pie too.
It doesn’t help that sitting atop this massive energy reserve is Nigeria, a country that happens to have more people than Britain and France combined. A dynamic and entrepreneurial populace with perhaps with the most independent mindset of any black nation anywhere in the world, with the largest military.
There is a parallel between the Franco American presence in Africa and its military expansion impoverished West Africa. More so for the U.S, especially since the establishment of the Carter Doctrine. In accordance with the doctrine, Washington had to ensure security of oil supplies to the US.
The US had wasted almost $8 trillion between 1976 and 2007 on protection of the Gulf oil sites. By this measure Nigeria and the United States should be best of friends, but since unlike those nations Nigerians have an ingrained sense of pride and independence, what they did in the Middle East cannot be replicated in the biggest black nation on earth. Thats why America’s request to base its AFRICOM Command in Nigeria was flatly rejected.
This is the hard truth and Nigerians are not ready to accept this. The billion dollar US military’s presence has not led to diminishing the Islamist threat. Quite the contrary, Islamic extremist groups have recently intensified their activities on the continent.
First oil rich Libya was destroyed, Boko Haram was given real fangs after NATO’s invasion of Libya, through obtaining large quantities of weapons and ammunition from Libyan stockpiles.
The Western invasion has directly resulted in the upsurge of terrorist activity in the region. The fabricated ISIS lie without strong evidence will do nothing but serve as a justification for further Franco-America’s further military expansion in the region.