Locked in a bad marriage, will Nigeria’s democracy survive ? There is a possibility of outright collapse of Nigeria by 2012.
– The ECONOMIST.
CIA, the espionage arm of the U.S intelligence predicts Nigeria would no longer be in existence by 2015.
Mapping the Global Future.
The Council on Foreign Relations, (an American think-tank) projected global trends and likely scenarios up to 2020 and stated:
“While currently, Nigeria’s leaders are locked in a bad marriage that all dislike but dare not leave, there are possibilities that could disrupt the precarious equilibrium in Abuja, to the extent that open warfare (may) breaks out in many places in a sustained manner.”
According to the think-tank,
Nigeria as a corporate entity was likely to splinter along tribal and sectarian lines by 2015 if some of the inherent fault lines were not properly managed and controlled.
20,000 people have been killed in Nigeria while that country has maintained its democratic facade.
These were the prediction for Nigeria. Doom.
As America remains stuck in a quagmire in Iraq and A-Stan, one would think the CIA would have something better to do than play nostradamus, predicting gloom and doom. But they didn’t stop there, they moved the doomsday clock on Nigeria’s imminent collapse up by 2 mins to midnight.
Indeed, to assess the readiness of its military to respond to a possible war in Nigeria, Somalia and some other African countries, the United States military, in May 2008, conducted a war games test called Unified Quest 2008. A 2013 war date was in fact later set to test how AFRICOM could respond to a crisis in Nigeria in the event that rival factions and rebels fight to control the oil fields of the Niger Delta, and government collapses.
Fours years later there were worrying signs Nigeria would not implode as expected as the Niger Delta militants finally accepted an Amnesty deal. This did not down well with the powers that be.
Barely had the dust from five years war between the Nigerian state and MEND agitators settled before Boko Haram burst into the scene, to ensure its 2015 prediction come to fruition, hence giving
Nigeria’s very powerful but exhausted and depleted army little respite before jumping into what is now a decade bitter war of attrition with seemingly no end in sight. Like monitoring spirits (in spiritual pallant) they have a rope tied around Nigeria’s leg. Each time the country is about to achieve lasting peace they pull back the rope, send Nigeria reeling in a bizarre state of perpetual conflict that is unprecedented in the modern history of any nation. World War II lasted just seven years. The Vietnam war the same. In A-Stan, which was America’s longest the country is relatively stabilizing. Nigeria is entering its 25th year of sustained military operations.
Anyways, as 2015 approached the spectre of a Nigeria partition was beginning to be in doubt. In 2013 Nigeria eclipsed South Africa as the continent’s biggest economy, and with the largest consumer market, Nigeria was begining to attractive investors.
Events were not going as planned. Nigeria already weakened by war was vulnerable. There might never be another opportunity like this, so it was decided the time is right for an invasion. France planned to invade Nigeria through Cameroon as a proxy.
Federal Government was not ignorant of the situation, especially the activities of France designed to provoke Nigeria into a military clash by stoking territorial confrontation, but had all along tread with caution and refused to make it public to avoid full-blown confrontation between both countries. Nigeria was hopelessly outgunned. Failure to replace weapons lost to attrition was beginning to hamper Nigeria’s war effort. As the army weakened Boko Haram, for the first time now had the initiative.
Paradoxically Nigeria was saved from an imminent invasion by Boko Haram. The sudden media spotlight on Nigeria, as Boko haram now had the initiative quelled the spectre of a direct invasion. Rather they would destabilize Nigeria vis Boko Haram.
As Boko Haram grew stronger and Nigeria grew weaker, Air Force One flew over Nigeria to Ghana, in a childish bid to embarrass the Nigerian government proclaimed :
“By traveling to Ghana, we hope to highlight the effective governance that they have in place,”
President Obama says he chose Ghana partly because of the country’s commitment to democracy. YES. Air Force One flew over the 4th largest democracy on earth to Ghana.
But of course the Ghanaians, addicted to competition with Nigeria were ecstatic. Across Ghana, street vendors were stocking miniature American flags while citizens donned attire with pictures of the U.S. leader. Nigeria’s discontent for what it called a snub led to the postulation that Obama’s visit was generating excitement in the west African nation and envy among its neighbors with many seeing his visit as sending a message to governments over their poor records on stability.
He gave a speech that was received with rapturous applause :
Ghana, which was the first sub-Saharan country to gain independence, went through growing pains, including a staunch military rule, but emerged as a democracy in 1992. It gained independence from Britain in 1957.
Your nation has maintained a clean image in a continent known for conflict. The transfer of power after elections in recent years has often gone smoothly, earning the country international fans in a region where leaders are ousted kicking and screaming when their terms are over.
As the sellout nation -Ghana, basked in the glow, media across Africa asked different variations of the same question: Why not us? Obama summed up the answer in two words: democratic commitment.
As Nigeria’s 2015 Presidential election drew close, the CIA’s prediction was about to come to fruition they hoped. Three days before the election President Obama deployed 300 U.S Marines to Ghana, ready to move into Nigeria and evacuate Americans and Europeans when the shooting starts and Nigeria descends into chaos. The French aircraft carrier was stationed off the West African coast.
The time had come ! They have trained hard and carried out WarGames on Nigeria.
Unfortunately the mayhem never took place. Boko Haram was nowhere to be seen. The powers that be failed to take into account the fact that Nigeria had been receiving Chinese and to some degree weapons in complete secret. These weapon had helped turn the tide. For example the world was oblivious Nigeria had been operating Chinese combat drones when images of a crashed CH-3 drone with two missiles intact began to surface.
The election was one of the freest and fairest and best organized elections AFRICA had ever seen. Results where being posted on Twitter in Real Time and result could be checked online in Real Time. It was indeed Africa’s first High Tech Election. The Marines were back disappointed.
Why is this significant ?
Last week, high-level delegations from Ghana’s House Parliament payed a study visit to the National Assembly. They sought Nigeria to assist emerging democracies.
Ghana seeks to capitalize the unique experience and skill set of Nigeria’s legislators in democracy building and parliamentary strengthening missions. prove to be valuable sources in post-election and democracy building work
Just yesterday senior officials of the Independent Electoral of commission of Lesotho (IEC) were in Nigeria on a study tour of the Independent National Electoral Commission — INEC, to share its experience and strategic plans with the officials from Lesotho electoral management body.
The delegation from Lesotho, led by Dr Austeria Ntsike said they chose Nigeria as a model because of its history of erection successes and experience, as well as have some of the words best institutions. She further stated that past efforts to improve the process in Lesotho did not materialise, hence a well organised and mature democracy like Nigeria could help Lesotho’s electoral management body to develop a strategic plan.
We are at the final stages of developing our own, that’s why we have come here. We hope that the outcome will be incorporated so that our strategic plans will be as robust and developed as yours.
The Nigerian National Assembly is widely viewed as one of the most important and developed political structure in the world.
Isn’t it ironic that the very country they love to hate is becoming the bastion of democracy on the continent? At at a time every country is striving for democratic governance and looking upon Nigeria as a model, the United States and France the world’s two oldest constitutional democracies are busy propping up Africa’s only two remaining dictatorships and ringing Nigeria with Reaper Drone bases, Air bases and fighter jets.
The increasing spate of instability and conflicts coincides with the ramping up of U.S and French military facilities in West Africa. The pattern of encirclement is eerily similar to how the U.S successfully encircled China and Russia.
Nigeria is at risk for a recurrence of conflict or dissolution, especially since some of the underpinning motivations of turning West Africa into Guam is unresolved,